Friday, June 01, 2007

Indo-US Nuclear deal - Perspective of an ex-nuclear scientist

Indo-US Nuclear deal, an ambitious news item for more than year. Is it really worth this media attention, Is it really a win-win situation for India and US, Should India accept this deal at all, If India wants to clinch a deal under what circumstances?

How this deal could be a Win situation for US
- It has a great economical potential, will create a great deal of opportunity for US nuclear industry which is in stagnation state
- It can be shown as look east policy of Bush administration
- Strategically getting closer to India than Russia
- May be considering the possibility of using India against China once India joins the Big brother’s wagon

India's nuclear history
- Under the esteemed guidance of Homi Baba, India has a vision for 3 phased Nuclear system
- India doesn’t have much of a Uranium reserves, it can not run the way west operates their nuclear reactors with light water. So India has gone for Heavy water reactors where there is no need for enrichment. This is the first Phase, which we achieved around a 3 decades before.
- We are running in Phase 2 where Advance Heavy water reactors(AHWR) under operation, With a higher capacity than the Phase-1
- Final Phase is FBR (fast breeder reactor), whose prototype is proven and a new public enterprise is started for commercial operation of FBR. The project is under progress in Kalpakkam.
- FBR is a beautiful technology which breeds fuel while consuming it, Uses Thorium as bed and converts that in to fissionable material which can be used in AHWR. This will effectively solve the problem of less availability of uranium in India.

How will this deal be a WIN situation for India?
- Though FBR is a very ambitious project, not much is proved in nuclear circle outside India. We might become pioneers of this technology if we succeed. But if not, many of our current reactors and those under construction may face severe shortage of fuel and may face total shutdown. This deal will provide them assured access to International Uranium market to buy fuel.
- India's electricity growth is not in tandem with that of Economy. India has 40% power deficiency. Some of the industry's sluggish growth is directly attributed to power crisis. This deal will boost the Indian Power sector and we can expect a lot of foreign investment in constructing new nuclear reactors.

Why this discussion then?
The way Us want this deal to be is the basic problem behind it.
- Instead of looking at these points USA is still looking at India as it was in nascent Independence state. It is trying to find a frame work which can be used later in the future for other countries which have a very strong Proliferation record. It is restricting Indian Scientific community and imposing sanction on their research. It is linking the deal to future nuclear tests and not allowing India to process the spent fuel.

What If we agree to USA conditions?
- Probably we can close the nuclear research center in BARC and become part of Banana republic.

What do I suggest?
- Listen to the scientific community before clinching the deal, a final draft should be amiable to the Scientists who are working in BARC. If we are barred from testing and our neighboring state tests the new technology it bought from our other neighbors, our national security would be at stake.
- We should agree for a deal only if USA looks at India as the super power of 21st century and don’t link it with other rogue nations around.
- A deal should materialize only if all the clauses referring to nuclear tests and spent fuel rights are completely removed from the deal papers.

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